ROAS cut by 2/3rds - the new normal for FB ads?


Yo!

So I've been dipping back into Meta ads again and getting some positive results.

If you're thinking about investing in ads though, I have to warn you about this little rollercoaster you'll go on.

(FYI - I put all of this in a video breakdown inside the Living Meta Ads Course which you can get access to within GM+ here for a $1 trial).

It seems like there's a new normal when it comes to Meta ads, and it's throwing a lot of people off.

I spoke to someone who manages multi-7-figure ad spend, he confirmed my experience and offered some more deets which I'll share here.

There now appears to be a basic progression within the first few days of launching a new campaign.

And if you're not aware of it, it'll likely scare the crap outta ya.

Here's the basic progression. Your ads will...

  • Do really well out the gate, bringing you really cheap buyers at great ROAS
  • Those results will then dry up for 1-3 days
    • If you have low spend, that will mean no sales through this period
    • If you have high spend, you'll get sales but likely be making a loss over this period
  • Then the ads will start to stabilise again and bring in buyers at a more reasonable cost

Long story short, you have to give your ads a week or so to really understand the true CPA and the ongoing effectiveness of the ads.

Want an example?

Here's a BTS of a new ad campaign I launched and the result. This was a low-cost campaign to test out the AI ad creators I put together for the community (grab my personal AI ad tools in the community)

I launched a new ad set and within 3 days it was bringing a whopping 10.75 ROAS.

So, for every dollar spent, I was making $10.75.

An incredible return on a $27 product - even if the ad spend was a low testing budget.

But then things dried up.

For a few days, sales dropped and when checking on the daily stats, every one was a negative ROAS.

A further 4 days and the overall ROAS had dropped by 2/3rds to 3.66.

Still a good ROI, don't get me wrong.

But there were days when I was making 0.7 ROAS, and if you look at just that day you might panic (especially at higher spends).

... so don't do the whole check only one day's performance thing.

The real question is why does it happen, and what's the solution?

With reference to the why, the truth is - no one could tell you. I doubt even Meta knows the exact reason.

I'm a cynical bugger and I have a theory. I reckon FB sends you low-hanging fruit buyers for great results to entice you to up your spend.

You see a 10X result and think "If I spend $1000, I'll make $10,000!".

But then it all drops off and you're left panicking.

So again... don't make decisions on any one single day's performance.

What you should be doing is looking at the performance of your campaigns and ad sets every 7-days or so to make decisions.

Definitely keep an eye on them in the shorter term, but try not to make decisions on the direction of the campaign until you have a bit more data.

The only reason I'd stop a campaign before this is if I was way below the benchmarks I set for campaign perfromance basically telling me the whole approach is crap.

Anyway, I added a video lesson to the Living Meta Ads Course in GM+ which you can check out for a $1 trial here.

But if you'd rather just buy access to this course, hit reply and let me know. It's not yet a standalone but I could make it one if you need me to.

Speak soon,

Pete "diminishing returns" Boyle

Vagrants, Vagabonds, and Villains Ltd, Unit 16535, 13 Freeland Park, Wareham Road, Poole, Dorset BH16 6FA
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